Where I Was Right and Where I Was Wrong- MLB Preview Review

By: Schwartz

“I’m sure some stuff in there is going to look like prophecy a couple of months from now, and some is going to look downright stupid” -Me, on my own three-part MLB preview, two months ago

And wasn’t that the truth. Since I published those words, we’ve been witnesses to a ridiculously jam-packed 50ish games of the MLB’s weirdest and shortest season ever. Crazy superstar leaps, giant letdowns and collapses, and dominant, weird stats have characterized the past two months or so of this campaign. We’ve learned that nothing is a given, even the completion of the season itself, as the COVID-19 pandemic has threatened it more than once. And like I projected, some of the statements in which I was most confident have been...completely and utterly wrong. So, as we approach the final stretch before the postseason, I’ve decided to take a look back and see which projections in my preview were “prophecy,” and which takes were total garbage. Without further ado...here they are, with one bad take to balance out each good one

Where I was right: A healthy Aaron judge is an MVP shoo-in

Over the early stretches of the season, the face of the Yankees franchise was on fire. He smoked six homers over a five-game streak, including four over a weekend sweep of the rival Red Sox. By early August, he was leading the MLB in home runs, hitting over .300, and putting up a ridiculous OPS of over 1.200. Simply put, he was an impossible out, the one guy in the whole sport that no pitcher wanted to face. After his last home run in that Boston series- and by far his biggest- A-Rod bizarrely and perhaps fittingly compared #99 to the likes of Tiger Woods, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan. All of America had risen, as Judge fever was at an all-time high. Combined with his always-elite defensive play, he was hurtling towards the MVP that has eluded him since an aggressively-cheating Jose Altuve won at his expense- my projection that he’d take home the award could not have been looking more phenomenal. And then...

Where I was wrong: Aaron Judge is capable of staying healthy throughout a shortened slate

...he got injured, fittingly, while hitting a home run. Just 17 games into New York’s campaign, their best player hit the Injured List. He returned for one game two weeks later (Aug 26), and injured himself again. Finally, on September 16, he returned, but his MVP case has been completely destroyed, as he will have played less than half of the Yankees’ games when all is said and done. Hopefully, he’ll be able to return to form as the Bombers make a postseason push, which he would tell anyone that he would prefer over any sort of personal award. 

Where I was right: The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be phenomenal

Wow. The Rays have endured a litany of injuries, and a highly challenging schedule, to take control of the East, and at times, own the best record in the entire American League. They have featured a balanced offensive attack and a flame-throwing bullpen, and have competed very well against the best teams in the East Superdivision. It’s not too much of a surprise to anyone who watched this team last year, but they are among the very top contenders to take home the Commissioner’s Trophy in the most unique postseason ever. I was pretty on top of this, as I had them at fourth in my preseason power rankings. Still, they probably should have been higher because...

Where I was wrong: The New York Yankees will still be good enough to lead the East 

...I overestimated the Yankees. The main issue I had with the Rays in the preseason was nothing about them- it was my lack of belief that they could surpass the Yankees. But that’s exactly what they’ve done. As both teams have been slammed by injuries, Tampa have remained consistent while the Yankees have floundered. In particular, the Rays have maintained a dominant 8-2 record in the teams’ head-to-head matchups, allowing them to pull away in the division. The two teams might meet again in October, and the Yankees could then reclaim the East, but for now, Tampa has soundly entrenched themselves in first place

Where I was right: The A’s will take control of the AL West, the Astros will struggle without cheating, and the Angels are not ready

Nailed it. The A’s have a stranglehold over the West, the Astros, in a fair playing environment, are the definition of mediocre, sitting a game above or below .500 and in the AL’s last playoff spot most days, and the currently-fourth-place Angels actually spent a little bit of time with the worst record in baseball. The A’s’ remarkable performances in the past few years were only rewarded with a wild card berth- but no longer. With Houston playing the same game as everyone else, the West is theirs. As far as the Angels, their stars have largely played well, but as many predicted, the depth has simply not been there- this isn’t the NBA, two stars don’t make you a contender.

Where I was wrong: Rendon and Ohtani will contend for major AL awards 

Rendon has played fairly well, although not MVP-level. Injuries forced Ohtani to end another pitching season- during which he pitched only 1.2 innings over two appearances and racked up a 37.80 ERA- and to make matters worse, he has been dreadful at the plate, hitting under .200. Regardless, the team’s lack of success, and Trout’s high level of play, would have made these two non-contenders, almost regardless of what they each did on the field. 

Where I was right: Dustin May’s performance will be a massive deciding factor in the Dodgers success 

So much has gone right for the Dodgers’ pitching staff, en route to the team owning the best record in the MLB and clinching 2020’s first playoff spot. Clayton Kershaw has looked like his old self, Tony Gonsolin has been super-effective, and Julio Urias has been more than passable. On top of that, the bullpen has stepped up in a huge way, featuring an insane six relievers who have thrown 15+ innings and maintain an ERA below 3.00, including an unfair 0.60 and 1.13 from lefties Adam Kolarek and Victor Gonzalez, respectively. May, as well, has been at the center of the staff’s success, as he’s pitched to an ERA of 2.81, although curiously, he sports just a win-loss record of 1-1. Nevertheless, he has thrown extremely well, and has more than proven that he is a very viable postseason arm for LA. 

Where I was wrong: Walker Buehler will dominate 

Buehler has evened out after a rougher start to the season. He’s been fine, much better as of late, but his season numbers placed him outside of Cy Young Award contention over a month ago. The Dodgers should be confident in their presumptive ace heading into the postseason, as he has come into better form, but he won’t be considered for any regular season awards this season. 

Where I was right: the Dodgers will return to 2018 World Series form

We’ve already gone over the excellence of LA’s pitching staff, which has been the absolute key to their 2020 success. On offense, although reigning MVP Cody Bellinger has struggled to even be a league-average hitter, many of his teammates have picked up the slack, including new acquisition Mookie Betts, who might just take the award from Bellinger when all is said and done. LA is in prime position to make it back to the Fall Classic, and this year, they might just win it. 

Where I was wrong: the Nationals will return to 2019 World Series form

Well, if you interpreted “2019 form” as getting off to a dreadful start, I suppose I was right on this one. However, unlike last year, the shortened season means that there won’t be enough time for the Nats to recover and make a postseason run. Other than young stars Juan Soto and Trea Turner, the offense has largely sputtered. Nobody in the starting rotation- not even Max Scherzer- has an ERA under 4.00, and two starters, as well as closer Daniel Hudson, have garnered a total over 7.00. Nothing has gone well for the defending champs and sadly, they’ll have less time to get over their World Series hangover than teams in the past.

Where I was right: of the trendy preseason teams, the White Sox are among the best of the bunch and the Reds are overhyped

As I write this segment (9/17/20), the Southsiders actually own the American League’s best record, and the second-best in all of baseball. Rookie phenom Luis Robert has impressed, while Tim Anderson has amazingly continued his 2019 form. Second-year pro Eloy Jimenez has been excellent, and Jose Abreu, who has smacked 15 homers while hitting over .325, just might win this year’s MVP. In the rotation, Dallas Kuechel has been his best self, Lucas Giolito has shown his star potential, and Dane Dunning and Dylan Cease have been pleasant surprises. The bullpen, led by Alex Colome, Matt Foster, and Evan Marshall has also largely been better than expected, although there have been some weaker performances. Cincinnati, on the other hand, sit below .500 and are only in line to make the postseason because of the bizarre, one-year format that we will see this year- they will likely have the worst record of all playoff teams if they do end up making it. Trevor Bauer might be a serious Cy Young candidate, but nothing in the pitching staff has gone too well, and the same could be said about the offense. Cincy’s bats should wake up in the future, but they might be out of time to improve within this season. Better luck next year to the reds. 

Where I was wrong: The Padres are a few years away

This might be the worst miss in my entire MLB preview. They were the middle team in the most mediocre tier of my power rankings, but now, they own the second-best record in the NL, trailing only their division rival in LA. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have been the star duo that many hoped they would be on San Diego’s left side. Jake Croneworth and Wil Myers have also hit the ball well, but to be honest, very few Padres have not done so. This team mashes the ball, and have been extremely fun to watch all year. Both the rotation and bullpen are a bit top-heavy, which could prove problematic in the postseason. Still, the Padres are leaps and bounds beyond where I projected them to be at this time. 

Where I was right: the Cubs are dangerous

Chicago have raced out to a .600 winning percentage, and could not be more in control of the ragtag AL Central. While Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez and Anthony Rizzo have all struggled, guys like Jayson Hayward and Ian Happ have seriously picked up the slack. The lineup only features three guys with an OPS+ of 125 or better, and just one additional hitter over 100, but these Cubbies have been the kings of finding a way to win. However, the rotation has overperformed, as Yu Darvish has been a revelation and has a real shot at this year’s NL Cy Young award, especially after perennial contender Jacob deGrom just took himself out of the race with a short and rough performance. Kyle Hendricks and Alex Mills have been very effective as well, and Jon Lester, although not his best self, has given the team some tough innings. The Cubs are back, and they will be a tough out when October comes along. 

Where I was wrong: the Cardinals will still run the Central 

Perhaps the COVID-related schedule disruptions have thrown them off, but the Cardinals have simply not been the team they’re supposed to be. They’re tied with the Reds for a playoff spot right now, but sit below .500 and have impressed just about nobody. Paul Goldschmidt has been fantastic, and somehow leads the team’s pop-free offense with a total of 6 home runs. The offense has been no better than average, as there are only a few bats that they have been able to rely on all season long. Adam Wainwright and Dakota Hudson have thrown really well, and Kwang Hyun Kim has been highly impressive in somewhat limited time, but last year’s ace Jack Flaherty has really struggled and the bullpen hasn’t been anything to write home about. This team could become more dangerous towards October- it’s all about being hot at the right time, and St. Louis could still find their way into the playoffs. Nonetheless, they have been a disappointment thus far, and one I absolutely did not see coming. 

And lastly... where everyone was wrong:

The Marlins, Orioles, and Tigers will be completely uncompetitive

Nope. Not at all. These teams checked in at 28, 29, and 30 in my power rankings, the final three spots, and none of them have done anything but prove me wrong all season. The two AL teams have cooled down since their hot starts, but Detroit and Baltimore sit just 2.5 and 2 games away from the AL’s last playoff spot- not nearly an insurmountable gap. Miami’s situation, however, is far more interesting. The Marlins, after a bizarre, COVID-muddled start where they had played significantly fewer games than the rest of the league, have stormed out to a start that nobody would have expected. They are currently sitting in the NL’s fifth seed, primed for a super-intriguing matchup with the Padres. I have no idea how this all happened. Maybe it invalidates the legitimacy of this season a little bit. But maybe that’s just how baseball is- a team can go from last place to champs, and then back to last again (2012-13-14 Red Sox). A team can spend the first quarter or more of the season in the cellar, and win the World Series (the reigning Champions, the 2019 Nationals). And apparently, the group of three teams that many saw as the worst in the league can send one or even two of its clubs to the playoffs. That’s baseball, baby.