Series Spotlight: #1 Rays vs. #5 Yankees in the ALDS
BY: Schwartz
What just happened:
The Yankees, seen by many (including myself) to be a heavy AL and World Series favorite entering the season, experienced an ultimate up-and-down season, featuring distinct stretches of 16-6, 5-15, 10-0, and 2-6, but here they are in the Division Series after absolutely pounding the Indians’ vaunted pitching staff, winning Game 1 in a true blowout, and winning an all-time classic back-and-forth duel in Game 2. They’ve shown the ability to dominate, and the championship mentality that it takes to win close contests, and most of all, they’ve shown adaptability and the potential to hurt you in multiple ways- right now, things are looking just about as good as they can for a five-seed.
The Rays, on the other hand, followed up a thoroughly impressive AL-leading season by absolutely shutting down the last-seeded Blue Jays; Toronto’s theoretically-potent offense was held to just three runs over the two games of the Wild Card series by a dominant Rays pitching staff. Tampa’s two top rotation arms, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, combined for 11.2 innings pitched and 2 runs allowed, and the bullpen was highly effective in slamming the door. The Rays barely broke a sweat, and are as fully loaded as they’ve been at almost any point this year as they head into the Division Series with almost a week of rest.
Both of these teams enter the matchup with plenty of confidence and momentum, and no shortage of bad blood- this series is poised to be one of the most intense, competitive and entertaining of the entire postseason.
What the Yankees need to do
1- Win Game One
Tampa has a distinct pitching advantage in this series, in terms of both the rotation, and somewhat surprisingly, the bullpen. One of the few times this will not be the case is when Gerrit Cole is on the mound. Although Blake Snell is a hell of an arm himself, Cole is unmatched in big-game opportunities, and particularly did unspeakable things to the Rays in last year’s Division Series. He should also benefit from ultra-pitcher-friendly Petco Park, as he’s had slight issues keeping the ball in the yard this season; some of those homers will turn into fly balls in San Diego. This year, however, due to the compressed schedule, it’s highly unlikely that Cole is able to make multiple starts- he’s never pitched on three days’ rest, as he would have to in order to be ready for Game 5 after starting the opener. So, the Yankees really need to make the most of their 300 million dollar ace and start the series out with a win; if they don’t, it will be a seriously tough hole to climb out of on the backs of a handful of inconsistent starters, and thus a potentially heavy reliance on a bullpen that oftentimes hasn’t pitched up to its potential this season.
2- Crush the hard stuff
As Rays manager Kevin Cash threateningly and inappropriately pointed out on live television, the Rays have a whole stable of guys who throw 98+ miles per hour. Unfortunately for Cash, that doesn’t mean a damn thing against a Yankees team full of bat-speed monsters- hello, breakout seasons for Luke Voit and Clint Frazier- who happen to be the group that scored more runs on hard pitches (fastball, cutter, etc) than any other team in baseball. Tampa have limited the Yankees in their 10 meetings this year, but those matchups have more or less coincided with the very peaks of the Yankees’ injury problems. With quick swingers such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton back in the fold, as well as MVP candidate DJ LeMahieu, who missed a handful of the showdowns, a Yankees offense that just murdered the best pitcher in baseball this year, as well as arguably the best closer, may be able to take the Rays’ elite velocity and turn it against them.
3- Work the count
The Yankees’ lineup is as talented as any I’ve ever seen. However, it seems that sometimes, many of the guys are absolutely lost out there and have no real approach. This has led to some dismal, uninspired performances from a team that is capable of doing, well, what they just did to the Indians. This team has been often labeled as one that is too dependent on the home run, as some of the hitters choose to simply swing for the fences each pitch rather than putting together coherent at-bats, which lets good pitchers hang around too long and deters the team’s ability to create long, productive innings. During the Cleveland series, however, they didn’t live and die by the long ball. Make no mistake, the Yankees hit it out of the yard early and often, but some of their most important offense came from simply getting long at bats, walking, singling, having guys on base and moving them around- particularly, the final stages of their Game Two comeback. With a team that has as much pitching depth as the Rays, it will be imperative for New York to see as many pitches as possible and force them to burn their potent bullpen arms as quickly as possible. Players like DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, and Brett Gardner who are content to work the count and/or take a walk will be key if the Yankees are going to be successful in raising Tampa’s pitch count
What the Rays need to do
1- Put the ball in play
Well, that and hit it somewhere other than third base, where Gio Urshela appears to be the best defender in baseball. But the Yankees committed the most errors of any team in baseball this season, 48 in just 60 games, and as a result, gave up a super-gross 28 unearned runs. Especially concerning was the defensive performance of Shortstop Gleyber Torres, who committed 9 errors in just 40 appearances at one of the most pivotal defensive positions. With postseason maestros such as Cole and Masahiro Tanaka taking the mound in the first two games, the Rays will need to take advantage of every break they can get if they want to avoid falling into a dangerous 2-0 hole, and simply putting the ball in play, and putting the pressure on the Yankees defense rather than their pitching staff is a viable route to victory, especially if the Rays’ own pitching staff limits the Bombers’ offense. As healthy as they are right now, it’s going to be really hard to beat this Yankees team- but the Rays just might be able to force them to beat themselves. The issue with this approach is that it doesn’t play to Tampa’s strengths compared to New York’s. The Rays are actually pretty awful at putting the ball in play, they struck out the most times of any team in the MLB this season, and the Yankees pitching staff racked up the 11th-most punchouts in the league. It’s also worth noting that the Yanks walked the fourth-fewest batters of any team this year, so if Tampa can’t put the ball in play, baserunners are going to be seriously hard to come by. Still, this team is highly resilient and open to change, and if they can alter their approach for the next week, it could pay enormous dividends.
2- Throw some junk
As dominant as the Yankees offense has been against fastballs, and in general, they have struggled against soft and/or breaking pitches all season long. Similarly, as their dominance against fastballs is going to increase with their full-strength lineup being intact, their struggles against breaking pitches will do the same. Giancarlo Stanton, in particular, looks absolutely helpless against a well-thrown curve, and fellow big swinger Clint Frazier might see some more time as the head to head matchups that made Brett Gardner such an attractive option in the Indians series might not apply as much this time around. The Rays regularly took advantage of this chink in the Yankees’ armor during the regular season, limiting them to 34 runs in the two teams’ 10 meetings. The only difference was that with all of New York’s injuries, the Rays were less likely to get punished for leaving men on base during a wild inning. If they want to succeed in this series, Tampa will have to replicate this same breaking-ball dominance, one of the keys in their 8-2 regular season record over the Yanks.
3- Get a bunch of innings out of Snell and Glasnow
Neither of Tampa’s top two guys necessarily threw like aces this year, but the team was 4-1 in their five combined starts against the Yanks. Sure, that’s the same as the other five games the two teams played, but these five included some of the Rays’ worst offensive performances, including a Snell start where Tampa won 1-0, and a Glasnow outing where he actually outdueled Cole. And, beyond these two guys, there really isn’t anyone that Cash seems to trust throwing a ton of innings. So if they are forced into short outings in the first two games, the bullpen is going to be unnecessarily taxed heading into potentially three more games without a day off, one or more of which might be an opener game- sort of a formula for disaster. The Rays’ bullpen is great to be sure, but if even Tampa’s top starters are producing some of the ultra-short starts that we’ve seen from the team this season, the pen is going to have a hard time giving the amount of quality innings that the team is going to need from them.
My Pick
I’m gonna go ahead and say something that could very possibly come back to bite me- I view this series as the ALCS. The winner of this de facto AL East title matchup should absolutely handle the winner of the AL West counterpart, whoever that may be (The A’s. It’s going to be the A’s.). The Rays have shown an insane resilience in overcoming all sorts of injuries, approaching every opponent in a unique way, and taking platooning to such an extent that the team’s batting average against righty pitchers is separated by their performance against lefties by just .002. This series is among the most important in franchise history for them, and they will be coming in with a chip on their shoulder despite being the American League’s top seed. But so will the Yankees, who feel that their injury-plagued season has diminished the public’s regard of the team’s potential even when healthy, and have been playing like a team that has a lot to prove. They are likely the most talented team in baseball, as they showed early this year and against Cleveland, and have the edge in terms of postseason experience, and while Tampa has given them head-to-head problems all year, I believe that this matchup will regress to the mean and the Yankees will come out on top. I’m projecting New York to jump out to a very narrow 2-0 lead, after signature performances from Cole and Tanaka and bullpen overuse from Cash, before Tampa fights back in Game Three and finally succumbs in Game Four as the bullpen is simply too taxed to hold down the Yankees for another game. Yankees in 4, but as competitive of a 4-game Division Series as we’ve ever seen. The Yanks have been my World Series pick all year, and as great as Tampa has been- and as up-and-down as the Bombers themselves- I’ve seen nearly nothing to suggest that my confidence was misguided. Aaron Boone’s bunch are Savages in the Box against Tampa once more, and move on to the ALCS for the third time in fourth years.