Three Meetings, Two Teams, One Yard: The Madness of Patriots-Seahawks

By Schwartz

In their first meeting of the new decade, the two teams that ruled over the NFL over the 2010’s picked up right where they left off and gave us a primetime battle for the ages. Despite an early interception, which was returned for a touchdown after bouncing directly off of Greg Olsen’s hands, Russell Wilson was nothing short of spectacular, as he didn’t turn it over again en route to a stunning five-touchdown clinic where he dominated the vaunted Patriots defense. Cam Newton, on the other hand, erupted for 397 yards through the air, coming to life after tossing a big third-quarter interception, including the first passing touchdown of his Pats tenure, as well as two more scores on the ground. Both defenses also made enormous plays with the game on the line- the Patriots forced a huge incompletion with just under two minutes left to give themselves a shot at a game-winning drive, and the Hawks of course snuffed out that very drive by blowing up yet another Newton goal line rushing attempt as time expired. It was a chess match of epic proportions between two legendary coaches, the grudge match in a triad of instant-classic classics that were all decided by a successful final defensive stand on the one yard line. But beyond the entertainment value of this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup, the game taught us arguably more about what will happen this year than any other we’ve seen so far. So let’s break down the biggest takeaways from the game for these two teams and beyond.

Let’s start with the most obvious thing that everyone saw on Sunday: Russell Wilson is the best quarterback in football. In writing for this blog, I’ve bit my tongue for far too long, silently submitting to the Mahomes truthers, but the fact of the matter is that Seattle’s signal caller is the best in the business. Since Russ has entered the league, no quarterback has had more completions that flew more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage- even in Mahomes’s legendary 2018 season, Wilson had more such completions than the MVP. As per PFF, he threw 4 of those balls yesterday, and completed three, all of which found the end zone. More importantly, his ability to reliably hit tight windows is unmatched, and his unique scrambling and throw on the run abilities mean that absolutely no play is ever dead, a key asset with Seattle’s perpetually-shaky offensive line. Wilson only threw 7 incompletions in his masterclass on Sunday, against a top pass defense in the NFL, and eviscerated the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Of those 7, four were listed as drops, including the opening interception, and two as throwaways. That means that, against the Patriots in primetime, Russ threw one off-target pass. He also threw three of the most impressive touchdowns I’ve seen in quite some time, here’s a quick breakdown of the three-

TD 2 (6:57 Q2, Wilson to Metcalf): Phenomenal throw as he nearly hits Metcalf in stride; the ball is left a tiny bit short, perhaps to fish for a DPI call, but his big-bodied receiver is able to keep playing through tight coverage, snag the ball and get into the end zone. 

TD 3 (2:00 Q3, Wilson to Moore): Firstly, this ball was thrown from the damn parking lot. He’s standing a yard or two ahead of midfield and more or less smacks the pylon itself, so it flies almost exactly 50 yards. He’s a moment away from getting hit. The DB is either pass interfering, or has entirely taken away the overtop and the inside, however you like to look at it. So what does he do? an over the shoulder look that sails directly to the pylon and takes advantage of the approximately 1 foot window between the coverage and the sideline. also a phenomenal toe tap

TD 5 (4:32 Q4, Wilson to Carson): TD 3: In some ways, the most impressive of the three. Russ looks off the entire defense and gets them flowing left. He’s once again under enormous pressure from Winovich (who had a very strong performance, by the way). He dials up one of his signature “fadeaway” throws, basically falling away and throwing entirely off of his back foot. Wilson unleashes a teardrop, and hits his man precisely in stride, and most importantly gives him exactly enough room to get two feet inbounds while keeping his pace- you don’t want to trust your running back with a challenging toe tap. Just masterful manipulation of the play from start to finish, and unbelievable touch and placement. Also puts the game (nearly) out of reach after Cam’s first passing touchdown cut the Hawks’ lead down to 5.

All of these throws were jaw-droppers, my entire living room, full of Pats fans and neutrals alike, erupted for each of the three. Russ was huge when the Seahawks needed him the most, and his throws were nothing short of pinpoint. It’s also worth noting that Russ’s performance was largely not on the shoulders of a star supporting cast- as I mentioned earlier, his line was quite shaky, and two of those three highlight touchdowns were thrown to the likes of David Moore and Chris Carson. Russ also added a big scoring pass to Freddie Swain, a relative nobody. He does not have the likes of Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce at his disposal, and there’s no Alvin Kamara or Michael Thomas for him to lean on. There are some solid receivers in Seattle, but Russ is the engine behind his offense’s success or failure, the defining factor in almost every game they play. This is the year- Russ will not only garner his first MVP vote, but take home the award. A national audience finally got to see what many of us have seen for a long time as Wilson turned in a dominant, signature performance and threw his hat in the ring for football’s most prestigious individual honor. His impact goes far beyond these three throws, of course, but seeing all three of them- any one of which could easily be the throw of the season for a lot of QBs- in one night really emphasized his unique passing ability. Seattle has finally decided not to wait until there’s 10 minutes left in a losing battle to fully unleash their superstar QB, and the statistical and team results are going to be nothing short of spectacular.

A second, related takeaway is one that affects the NFC West, and the conference as a whole. Although they made it a little dangerous, letting New England back into the game late, Seattle largely owned the game from wire to wire, responded well to adversity, and made the big plays that champion teams need to make on both sides of the ball. They responded well to unexpected features of the game, namely Newton’s air explosion, a testament to Carroll and his ability to both prepare his players and improvise in-game. Essentially, the Hawks put the world on notice that they are a serious contender for their division and beyond. Like Wilson’s toss to Carson, their big statement was extremely well-timed, as the division proved to be completely wide open this Sunday. The Niners looked solid in dispatching the frankly depressing New Jersey Jets, but suffered an absolutely devastating array of injuries. According to PFF, by the end of the game they were playing without Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Solomon Thomas, and Raheem Mostert. That’s just a litany of All-Pros, top picks, playoff heroes and veteran stars, and many of the affected positions (QB, DB, Edge) are among the highest-impact spots on the field. These injuries are of varying degrees of severity, but they seriously lower both the Niners’ ceiling and floor for the foreseeable future. The Cardinals looked fantastic yesterday in moving to 2-0, limiting the Washington offense and slicing up their talented defense en route to handing the Football Team their first loss. Of course, this was a game they were expected to win, but the early returns from the Murray-Hopkins connection, paired with Kyler’s rushing ability, are highly promising. Seattle will have plenty of competition in the division, but they look like the team best poised to take control of the race. They do have the 13th-toughest schedule in football, more challenging than other contenders such as New Orleans (24th) and Dallas (30th), so seeding may be an uphill battle. But if this team so much as wins the division, they become a lethal threat in this year’s postseason behind the strength of the best QB and MLB in the league, the most versatile impact defender, and a hall of fame coach- they have all of the tools you need to win the toughest games against the best teams. Underestimate them at your own risk.

Meanwhile, even in the loss, Cam Newton pieced together a passing performance that absolutely nobody saw coming, all while working with arguably the worst arsenal of offensive skill players in the entire NFL. After the Patriots kept it on the ground in week one, and Cam only threw the ball 18 times, Superman was in full force on Sunday night as he let it fly 44 times and racked up just under 400 air yards, as well as 47 and two scores on the ground. He even ushered Julian Edelman to a career-high 179 receiving yards, surpassing any total he put up during his years with Tom Brady in just the duo’s second Sunday together. After a dominant ground performance in week one, run-stuffing legend Bobby Wagner and the Seattle defense limited New England rushers not named Cam Newton to 19 (Michel), 2 (Burkhead), and -1 (Taylor) rushing yards, so the emergence of the passing game was not a luxury, but an absolute necessity. One thing I noticed, an item that is only overshadowed in importance by Newton’s clear health and fitness, was the mental toughness that Cam showed after throwing a very ugly pick, one that could have been a crusher. It looked like it was a result of the altered, somewhat awkward throwing motion he’s sported so far in New England, and it would have been easy for Newton, who hasn’t really been a starter in a big spot in a few years, to put down his head and accept the loss to a very, very good team. He could have lost faith in his very ability to compete in the biggest spots for a team that desperately needs him. Instead, on the next two drives, he uncorked his biggest throws of the night, including a 49-yard rocket to Edelman, a goal-line passing score, and numerous clutch throws on what was nearly a game-winning drive to end the game. He did everything that was asked of him and more, and turned in a performance that would be more than good enough to take down almost (let’s not think about the Ravens or Chiefs right now) any team his Pats will see the rest of the way. On a day where the Jets flopped, and the Dolphins and Bills played a shockingly close one in Miami, Cam Newton showed everything he needed to re-stake the new-look Patriots’ claim on the AFC East, despite the fact that his team came up slightly short. 

There are still reasons to be concerned about this Patriots campaign. If you look at the first two weeks in Tom Brady’s 2019 game log, you see a hot start that gave way to a disappointing season that led to the perennial “is he done” questions, ones from which Newton is far from immune. As impressive as the offense was, the defense was not nearly strong enough to keep the Pats in games against teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, or even the surprisingly-explosive Bills, all of whom New England will face off against. Cam and co. were great, but this team is mostly going to go as far as their defense takes them and if they continue to look like they did on Sunday, that will not be very far at all. If they are going to compete against the AFC’s best, they will need to win the games where Cam Newton throws for 400 yards- this is not a hot take. The other thing that struck me about New England’s first two games was that essentially everything has gone right so far. The line is fully healthy and playing at their best, which has not been the case in a number of years for the Pats. Similarly to the offensive line, the wideout group has performed as well as one could reasonably expect thus far, but is more or less one injury away from being borderline unplayable. Furthermore, all of Josh McDaniels’s offensive tactics have been working, which also happened early last season, and as effective as Newton can be in short yardage situations, it’s not clear whether the Patriots will be able to continue to be close to 100% in the red zone. They could be candidates to slow down particularly if they remain as one-dimensional in short yardage as they looked on Sunday, as they got stuffed from the one yard line to lose the game after calling the exact play that everyone in America knew they were running. Everything is trending positive, but it’s easy to get carried away when New England is playing well and forget that 12 months ago, a highly flawed Patriots team was only around +1000 to go 16-0. The Pats also have to deal with the league’s toughest strength of schedule, as they play a first-place schedule and also have to square off against the challenging AFC and NFC West divisions. Still, nothing is impossible for Belichick and his crew, and Cam Newton is not a guy that the wise like to bet against. The postseason is very much in play and if they can get there, it’s hard to know just how much New England is capable of.