NFL Playoff Super-Preview

BY SCHWARTZ

I can hardly believe it, but here we are- it’s time for the NFL Playoffs. Somehow, despite outbreak after outbreak, every team managed to play 16 games. Now, we’re set for the biggest NFL playoffs ever, as it’ll involve 14 teams instead of the usual 12. It also has the potential to be one of the most exciting in recent memory; more teams, more chaos. Here, we’re going to try and make some sense of the madness, starting with a quick preview of each team, followed by a projected bracket and a description of how each matchup, set or potential, might play out. Let’s get right into it.

Team Overviews - AFC

Chiefs (14-2, AFC West Champions, #1 seed, First Round Matchup: Bye)

MVP: QB Pat Mahomes

DPOY: S Daniel Sorensen

X-Factor: WR Tyreek Hill

What is there to say about the “defending champions” that hasn’t already been said? Owners of the league’s most explosive offense, featuring surefire All-Pros and Offensive Player of the Year candidates in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, as well as mega-star QB Pat Mahomes, Kansas City have proven that they are a force to be reckoned in the postseason, as there is really no hole they can’t climb out of. This year, the Chiefs are still sporting a quietly strong defense, led once again by the star safety duo of Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen. While it is only the 16th-ranked defense by yardage allowed, strong red zone performances have allowed them to hold opponents to the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL, ranking them ahead of acclaimed defenses such as the Bears, Saints, Giants, and Buccaneers. The AFC has few true contenders alongside Kansas City, who entered week 17 having already solidified themselves as the conference’s top seed and owners of the all-important bye, and this team should be viewed as prohibitive favorites to once again win the AFC, and possibly lift the Lombardi trophy.

Bills (13-3, AFC East Champions, #2 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Colts)

MVP: WR Stefon Diggs

DPOY: S Jordan Poyer

X-Factor: CB Tre’Davious White

With Tom Brady’s departure, and that of so many fellow Patriots this offseason, many believed that a power vacuum existed in the AFC East, which New England had ruled for so many years. Well, the division is a vacuum no longer, as the Bills have soundly entrenched themselves at its top, possibly for years to come. Buffalo was a perfect 6-0 in divisional games this year, en route to a 13-3 record- which could have easily been 14-2 if not for a miracle Kyler Murray toss- and their first division title since the mid-90s. It was truly a show of dominance, as a team that last year was characterized by a tough defense and floundering offense became quite the opposite in 2020. This was due in large part to the star leap made by dual threat QB Josh Allen, which itself was due in large part to the arrival of blossoming superstar wideout Stefon Diggs, who led the league in catches, was selected to his first Pro Bowl, and just might earn his first All Pro honors this year. This duo was key in leading Buffalo to be the second-most prolific passing attack in the NFL, by yardage. The defense doesn’t look like a championship-level unit, but if it comes close to finding its 2019 form alongside the new-look offense, the Bills can make the most of the opportunity presented by their first home playoff game in over 20 years, and go on a deep playoff run. They’ve beaten some of the toughest teams in football this year, and will have to continue to do so if they are going to be the AFC threat to Kansas City that some believe they can be. 

Steelers (12-4, AFC North Champions, #3 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Browns)

MVP: Edge TJ Watt

DPOY: Watt

X-Factor: WR Chase Claypool

Few teams have had more of an up-and-down campaign than those in the AFC North (don’t worry Bears, we haven’t forgotten about you) and the division winner has been no exception. The Steelers opened the campaign on an 11-0 run, and with legitimate aspirations at matching the 2007 Patriots’ undefeated regular season. Since then, Pittsburgh has floundered through a 1-4 stretch, one that included losses to the likes of the Washington Football Team and the Bengals, and also could have easily been 0-5 if not for a massive collapse by the Colts. Truly, such a collapse was possible, due to a backloaded schedule, and a relatively one-dimensional team that relies almost entirely on its defense. The Steelers were always more likely to be pretenders than true contenders in the AFC, and now, their record more accurately reflects that. Still, their suffocating defense, led by likely Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt, may be able to carry them to a few wins, although that defense is slightly depleted by injuries, and they might not have the luxury of playing at Heinz field for as long as they once thought they would, having slid from the AFC’s top seed to #3.

Titans (11-5, AFC South Champions, #4 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Ravens)

MVP: RB Derrick Henry

DPOY: S Kevin Byard

X-Factor: WR AJ Brown

Much like the Bills, this 2019 playoff underdog featured a staunch defense, a dominant rushing and red zone offense, and not much else. This year’s edition, however, is quite different from the one that was a win away from earning the honor of losing to the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Currently, the Titans boast the fifth most prolific offense in the NFL in terms of total yardage, and the third best in terms of points. This is once again fueled by the league’s second-best rushing attack, trailing only the Ravens, who have the benefit of speedster QB Lamar Jackson- this is to say, it’s fair to consider the Titans as the best running back-only rushing attack in football. However, Tennessee is now burdened with the league’s fourth-worst yardage defense, leaving them as a club that is far more fun to watch, but perhaps not as big of a threat as they were a year ago. They have largely beaten bad teams and lost to the good ones, with the exception of an early win over a Bills team that had yet to pick up momentum, and a midseason triumph over a Ravens squad that was in a total free fall. Now, the Titans will get to host that same Ravens team, although they are playing much better football than when the last two teams met, and hope that they can knock them out of the playoffs for the second time in as many years en route to another daring postseason run. 

Ravens (11-5, 2nd Place AFC North, #5 seed, First Round Matchup: @ Titans)

MVP: QB Lamar Jackson

DPOY: CB Marlon Humphrey

X-Factor: WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

Viewed by many as football’s most complete team before the season started, the Ravens have endured a rockier path than almost anyone could have expected. After a strong start to the year, they struggled through a period of over a little a month when they went 1-4, and temporarily fell out of the AFC playoff picture. The defense has been one of the ten or so best in football, rather than the top three to five unit it could have been, and while the rushing attack has continued to be football’s most prolific, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has shown signs of somewhat predictable regression under center. Still, as they showed on their Monday Night Football showdown against the Browns, a veritable regular season game of the year candidate, this team has the ability to close out the close games, and play their best when it matters most. Injuries have slowed down what should have been a very balanced side, but if they can dictate pace and play their game, they just might be able to do what the new-look Jackson-led ravens still have yet to accomplish- win a playoff game. If that’s going to happen, it’ll have to be against the Tennessee Titans, who eliminated top-seeded Baltimore in one of the most thrilling upsets of last year’s playoffs.

Browns (11-5, 3rd Place AFC North, #6 seed, First Round Matchup: @ Steelers)

MVP: HC Kevin Stefanski

DPOY: Myles Garrett

X-Factor: Baker Mayfield

Only in 2020. The NFL’s longest playoff drought, spanning 18 years, has finally come to an end, as the Cleveland Browns beat their bitter rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and secured a playoff spot after a memorable 11-5 campaign. Truly, a stroke of historically awful luck almost cost them the opportunity after they lost their entire wide receiver group to COVID-19 a day before a potential playoff-clincher against the Jets, but here they are. I genuinely despise the term “emotional rollercoaster,” but there’s no other way to describe this Browns campaign; from the rough start, to losing Odell Beckham, to the convincing wins, to the late, heartbreaking losses and eventually, to clinching the playoff spot that has eluded them for so long- there’s been nothing like it in recent memory. Despite all of the injuries and COVID hurdles on the offensive side, the defense remains the biggest culprit for Cleveland’s near miss, and the most likely group on the team to prevent them from making a deep run. Behind the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and perhaps the best offensive line in the league, the Browns have established themselves as one of the top rushing attacks in all of football. In the passing game, Baker Mayfield, who has had a touchdown/interception ratio of 16/1 since Odell Beckham Jr’s injury, has taken a huge step forward.

This is due in large part to the presence of new Head Coach and Coach of the Year candidate Kevin Stefanski, who has proven to be a true offensive mastermind- I know it’s unconventional to name a coach his team’s MVP, but he has truly been the biggest individual driver of this team’s success. Baker has also benefited from the help of a wideout group led by the steady-handed Jarvis Landry, and a strong tight end room that goes three players deep. Suffice it to say, the offense is not going to be the death of this team, if most key players are on the field. Cleveland’s air defense has been less than splendid, as the secondary has been a sieve and the front seven, other than Myles Garrett, have not done much to create pressure. Still, anyone who has followed this team will tell you that they’re on a mission; they believe that they are a championship contender through and through, and that belief could get them somewhere. Their ceiling is hard to pin down, although realistically, a single playoff win would be an extremely satisfying end for this group, and a very solid accomplishment. Even sweeter, however, is the fact that the win would come against the rival Steelers, an immediate rematch of their week 17 battle, and an enticing grudge match between division adversaries who split their two meetings this year.

Colts (11-5, 2nd Place AFC South, #7 seed, First Round Matchup: @ Bills)

MVP: OG Quenton Nelson 

DPOY: LB Darius Leonard

X-Factor: WR T.Y. Hilton

Entering the final game of the season, the Colts were the only team in the AFC on the outside of the playoff picture, but still hanging onto a mathematical chance to make their way in. Fortunately for them, they did it, at the expense of the Dolphins. Now, they have the opportunity to validate all of the voices that lauded them as one of the preseason favorites in the AFC, and make a deep playoff run. For Philip Rivers, this may be his last chance to bolster his resume ahead of the eventual Hall of Fame vote, as his postseason shortcomings are a primary reason that he may be excluded from Canton when all is said and done. Unfortunately for Indy, the Texans’ upset bid against the Titans came up short, ensuring that the Colts would be relegated to the 7th seed, rather than earning the AFC South title. This has gifted them a first round date with the Bills, in a possibly quite snowy Buffalo. The outlook isn’t great, but this team has shown fight all season long, right down to the last snap, and their veteran experience could outweigh Buffalo’s high-flying talent in a tight matchup.

Team overviews- NFC

Packers (13-3, NFC North Champions, #1 seed, First Round Matchup: Bye)

MVP (League MVP): QB Aaron Rodgers

DPOY: CB Jaire Alexander

X-Factor: TE Robert Tonyan

Over the offseason, when the Packers made the surprising choice to use their first-round pick on Jordan Love, a horrible QB prospect out of Utah State, Aaron Rodgers stated that it might signal the end to what he had hoped to be a career-long marriage with his team. After his comments, there was speculation that this year, Rodgers might be on a mission to prove the team wrong and show that he was still the answer at the game’s most important position. Well Aaron, if that was your mission, it has been thoroughly accomplished. Football’s weirdest star signal caller turned back the clock and had a season for the ages, tossing a league-leading 48 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions, all of which amounted to the league’s third-ever 120+ passer rating season (one of the other two such seasons was courtesy of Rodgers himself). He was helped out by Davante Adams, who wrapped up the year with a ridiculous 18 touchdowns despite sitting out two games, and will be in contention for Offensive Player of the Year. Accompanying these two on the NFL’s highest-scoring offense were breakout tight end Robert Tonyan, and the perennially productive Aaron Jones. Paired with an improved defense that ranked within the top third of the NFL in yards allowed and within the top half in points allowed, the Packers are the favorite to advance from the NFC, and perhaps even knock off the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55. 

Saints (12-4, NFC South Champions, #2 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Bears)

MVP: RB Alvin Kamara

DPOY: DE Cameron Jordan

X-Factor: WR Michael Thomas

For so many years, the Saints have failed Drew Brees- it’s hard to believe that as long as he’s been one of the very best quarterbacks in football, he’s only won, or even played in, one Super Bowl. But this year, it seems that the opposite is true; the legendary signal caller is failing his team. Nothing can change the fact that Brees is one of the best passers to ever play the game, he’s always been one of the most accurate throwers of the ball, and his bulk counting stats will leave him in second place in most categories when he retires. New Orleans employs some of the best offensive weapons in the game in do-it-all running back Alvin Kamara, possession receiver extraordinaire Michael Thomas, the speedy Latavius Murray, and a wily veteran wideout in Emmanuel Sanders. Additionally, they’re currently fielding one of the league’s best defenses. Still, largely due to a steady stream of injuries and an arm that is failing him at the age of 41, Brees has failed to maximize this talent, as he hardly runs the Saints offense at a higher level than Taysom Hill, whose primary role in the league is as a wildcat player and special teamer. Brees’s veteran know-how and steady leadership are still invaluable, however, and as I’ve mentioned, his supporting cast is perhaps the best it’s been since that fateful 2009 run. It’s hard to envision a deep run with him at the helm this year, but he’s not nearly as decrepit as Peyton Manning was when his Broncos won Super Bowl 50, and he just might have one more trick up his sleeve before he brings down the curtain on his legendary career.

Seahawks (12-4, NFC West Champions, #3 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Rams)

MVP: QB Russell Wilson

DPOY: LB Bobby Wagner

X-Factor: S Jamal Adams

Early on, it looked like things were going better for Seattle than they had since Malcolm Butler snatched Super Bowl 49 away from them back in February of 2015. Russell Wilson seemed well on his way to that elusive MVP award, and the Hawks seemed destined to make their way back to the Super Bowl to probably face the Chiefs in an offensive shootout. But eventually, their awful pass defense caught up to them, and the second Russ cooled off, the team’s fortunes took a turn for the worse. They seemed in danger of losing the NFC West crown, but thankfully, they secured it, along with the NFC’s third seed. While the defense has perked up, and the team has smoothed out en route to a 6-1 run to finish the season, the offense is a bit of an area for concern; other than a 40-3 drubbing of the then-openly tanking Jets, the Seahawks offense has not cracked 30 points since their Week 9 loss to the Bills; their last victorious 30-point performance was the previous week against a shorthanded Niners team. Wilson is still one of the best players in the entire league, and the star skill trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Chris Carson is finally all healthy, so the offense can certainly be viewed as a sleeping giant that could snap into action at any moment. If this were to happen, alongside the improved defense- which hasn’t given up more than 23 points since that same game against the Bills- Seattle is as dangerous and complete a squad as any in this year’s postseason. Otherwise, they seem destined to win a game or maybe two, before facing a more potent offense, most likely Green Bay’s, and simply getting outgunned. 

Football Team (7-9, NFC East Champions, #4 seed, First Round Matchup: vs. Buccaneers)

MVP: QB Alex Smith

DPOY: DE Chase Young

X-Factor: WR Terry McLaurin

No, they may not have a name. But what they do have is something that the Giants haven’t had since 2011- an NFC East Title, and the accompanying home playoff game. They may have won extremely ugly in the last game of the 2020 regular season, and they may have done so against a team that was openly trying to lose the game, but they won nonetheless. There have been a number of stories that have surrounded this team, from breaking up the Steelers’ perfect season, to their hilarious namelessness, to the comeback of Alex Smith, who garnered a 5-1 record in his starts, and the not-unrelated fall of  Dwayne Haskins, and to the comical NFC East race, which they of course won. But none was more compelling than that of their brand new coach, Ron Rivera, who rallied his young team through a unique and challenging season to win their division against all odds, all while battling cancer during a pandemic that was especially devastating to the immunologically-weakened. He deserves all of the credit in the world, and if I had a vote for Coach of the Year, he would have mine, narrowly receiving the honor over the Browns’ Stefanski. As far as playoff outlook, a team with an offense this anemic doesn’t have much, but the team and its fans will be thrilled just to have made it this far. The future is bright in Washington; if they can figure out the quarterback position, and a name for the franchise, this football team will be competing for more East titles in years to come.

Bucs (11-5, Second Place NFC South, #5 seed, First Round Matchup: @ WFT)

MVP: QB Tom Brady

DPOY:MLB Devin White

X-Factor: WR Antonio Brown

If you’ve read any of my football articles, you probably didn’t think there was anything more I could say about the brilliance of Tom Brady. Well, think again. At age 43, on a new team, with no offseason to adjust, he is once again proving that he is the best to ever play the game. Despite adjusting to a new system for the first time in two decades, and enduring a rocky start to the season during which he and his receivers were clearly not on the same page, Brady threw the second-most touchdowns of his career (40) and led Tampa Bay to their first playoff appearance since 2007, snapping the second-longest drought in all of football. He wrapped up the year third in the league in passing yards, and second in touchdowns, and he should end up within the top five or so MVP candidates. However, there’s far more to this team than their veteran QB, as Brady had the luxury of throwing the ball to one of the most talented wideout groups in the NFL, featuring Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and midseason addition Antonio Brown. If Evans recovers quickly and thoroughly from his week 17 injury, and Brown retains the All Pro form he showed during the late stretches of the season, this passing attack is as dangerous as any in the entire NFL. Tampa has also featured a highly-improved defense, rising to the 6th-best yardage defense this year as compared to 15th a year ago, and taking a jump to 8th from 29th in terms of scoring defense. They were also the league’s best defense against the run for the second straight year. The defense is a highly talented group, headlined by a strong linebacker duo of Devin White and Lavonte David, rookie sensation Antoine Winfield, and somehow the team’s lone Pro Bowler, the eight-fingered Jason Pierre-Paul. While they have perhaps the most complete roster in football, the Bucs have shown inconsistency. Ugly losses, including two to the Saints have been interspersed between extreme highs, including a drubbing of the Packers. They have played competitively with some of the best teams the league has to offer, and if they’re able to keep their form and continue to play up to their talent level, there’s no reason that they can’t become the first team to play, and perhaps even win, a Super Bowl in their own home stadium.

Rams (10-6, Second Place NFC West, #6 seed, First Round Matchup: @ Seahawks)

MVP: DT Aaron Donald

DPOY: Donald 

X-Factor: RB Cam Akers

Although their NFC West aspirations were crushed by a shocking loss to the then-winless Jets, and then the next week, another defeat at the hands of the rival Seahawks, the Rams still have plenty to play for heading into the postseason. After following up their Super Bowl 53 loss with a playoff miss, the Rams were out for vengeance in 2020. They picked up a handful of solid wins against the Bucs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bears and Patriots, but were once again unable to find consistency on offense in year four of the Sean McVay/Jared Goff pairing. However, the defense rediscovered its hyper-elite form, finishing as the league’s best in terms of both overall yardage and scoring, as well as passing yardage and even fantasy points. They were led, as usual, by perhaps the most dominant defender since JJ Watt’s prime in do-it-all d-lineman Aaron Donald, who amazingly was second in the league in sacks and tied for second in tackles for loss, while primarily working from the defensive tackle position. Donald is joined in the front seven by a resurgent Leonard Floyd, who racked up a career-high 10.5 sacks, as well as steady performer Michael Brockers. The secondary also performed quite well, en route to that league-best pass defense, led by shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey. The main question for this team is whether or not Goff will be available for their first-round grudge match with the Seahawks, which will break the tie in the two teams’ season series, as well as of course offering a spot in the Divisional Round. Even as mediocre as he is, without Goff, the Rams offense looked shaky at best in week 17 against the Cardinals; they won’t win again with a similar offensive performance against a suddenly-improved Seattle defense and an offense led by one of the best veteran quarterbacks in the league, Russell Wilson. If they can survive and advance, it’s not hard to see how their dominant defense could carry LA far in the postseason, but there’s no comfortable matchups for this team, it will be a true week-to-week proposition.

Bears (8-8, Second Place NFC North, #7 seed, First Round Matchup: @ Saints)

MVP: WR Allen Robinson

DPOY: MLB Roquan Smith

X-Factor: QB Mitch Trubisky

I told you we wouldn’t forget! As topsy-turvy as the AFC North was all year, nothing could possibly compare to what Chicago fans had to endure at the hands of their painful, sadistic, but now playoff-bound football team. Da Bears “raced” out to a 5-1 start, which featured a flurry of fourth quarter comebacks and fifth-down shenanigans from Tom Brady and the Bucs, before dropping six consecutive games in the middle of the season. Not to be deterred, they then won three games in a row, scoring 30+ points in each- the first such streak in franchise history since the 60s. This late push earned them a win-and-in game against the rival Packers, which they lost horrifically, but then of course made the playoffs anyway after the Cardinals were dispatched by the Rams. The Bears, as has been the case in so many recent years, feature one of the NFL’s most talented and exciting defenses, even though the fact that they’re forced to constantly be on the field diminishes their statistical output. Standout youngster Roquan Smith continues to be an anchor at middle linebacker, as he led the team in total tackles as well as tackles for loss, ranking 5th and 4th in the NFL in those two categories, respectively. Khalil Mack also continued to be one of the most disruptive and versatile front-seven defenders in the NFL, finishing 9th in the league in TFL, although his sack numbers took a bit of a hit this year. Chicago’s offense continues to rely almost entirely on star wideout Allen Robinson, although it has exploded a bit in recent weeks, which has curiously coincided with the reintroduction of theoretical franchise QB Mitch Trubisky into the starting lineup. If the offensive spike can continue alongside a dominant defensive performance, the Bears are a serious Wild Card Weekend upset candidate, and could be headed towards a revenge-minded visit to Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

Game Previews

As I repeatedly mentioned before the season began, I hate the NFL’s new 14-team format. Since 2012, exactly zero non-bye teams have reached the Super Bowl, let alone won it, and creating a system that offers only one bye for each conference essentially guarantees your final matchup before the playoffs even start. In this spirit, I’ve picked both of the top seeds to advance through their conference and meet in the Super Bowl, even though I’m not thoroughly convinced that they’re necessarily the two best teams in the sport. That being said, the extra seed has gifted us with two extra playoff games, and a thrilling array of Wild Card Weekend matchups. Although I think the final pairing is more or less already decided, it looks like we’re in for a really fun path to that foregone conclusion. Let’s take a look at the matchups!

Wild Card Round

AFC

colts @ bills

Prediction: Colts 27, Bills 38

It’s been a nice season for Indy, made even better by the fact that they were able to sneak into the brand new 7th seed instead of becoming a depressing footnote as the NFL’s third-ever 11-win team to miss the playoffs. But, unfortunately it has to come to a relatively early end in front of roughly 6,500 raucous fans attending Buffalo’s first home game since the mid-90s. The Colts strong defense may be able to hold the Bills attack somewhat in check, and there’s a chance that Indy’s sometimes inefficient offense might be able to move the ball on a shaky Bills defense, even if they’re not at their best. But the Bills did just hang 56 points on a very strong Dolphins defense, even as they were fighting for their playoff lives. Buffalo are simply the better team, and will have no problem dispatching the Colts and seizing the opportunity presented by being one of the top seeds in the AFC.

Browns @ Steelers

Prediction: Browns 24, Steelers 20

To me, this is the best game of the first round. If the long term history between these two teams and fanbases wasn’t enough, there’s also the gritty, emotional showdown they had in each team’s previous game. This time, however, the Steelers won’t be playing their backups, and the Browns presumably won’t be hamstrung by only having the opportunity to hold one practice in two weeks. Cleveland also might have the services of Denzel Ward, their top corner, who would shore up a position of immense need. Both of these teams have their strengths and their flaws- the Browns feature a very potent and quietly balanced offense whose air game has earned a top-10 total QBR, and also racks up the third-most running yards per game. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has a bit of an anemic offense at times, but sports perhaps the game’s best defense. To me, I think that the Steelers offense is just a little bit more helpless than the Browns defense, particularly if Ward is available, and that the Cleveland attack will be able to find just enough points to pull ahead and secure the win over a team that has really floundered over the final stretches of the season.

Ravens @ Titans

Prediction: Ravens 41, Titans 35

When these two teams last met, the Ravens were not necessarily at their best. In the first matchup between the two squads since the Titans’ infamous playoff upset a year ago, Tennessee stormed out front in the fourth quarter, before finally putting the game away in overtime thanks to another Derrick Henry touchdown. This time, however, things will be different. The Ravens are as hot as any team in the NFL, and they are playing solid football in all three phases of the game. However, the results have been somewhat deceiving. Other than their Monday Night triumph over the Browns, perhaps the game of the year, the Ravens have been basically beating up entirely on horrible teams (Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Bengals). This leads me to believe that there’s a chance that Tennessee could hang some points on them, as their defense’s recent stretch of dominance hasn’t really been against playoff-level competition. Still, I think the Ravens will go ahead early this time, and not relinquish their lead. Lamar Jackson, the owner of a 21.5 total QBR in two playoff appearances thus far, will earn his first playoff win, and his team will survive the rare ground-based shootout and move on to the Divisional Round. 

NFC

Bears @ Saints

Prediction: Bears 20, Saints 17

Who dat say dey gonna have a playoff run without some sort of horrible catastrophe? Not the Saints, whose last few forays into January football have been capped off with terrible, season-ending officiating, miracle touchdowns, and just plain bad performances. This year, despite having one of their most complete teams in recent memory, New Orleans will not be able to escape the horrors of their recent playoff history, and will become the first ever #2-seed in NFL history to lose on Wild Card Weekend. All it takes to know that this year won’t be any different is to watch the tape of New Orleans’s loss to the Chiefs just a few weeks ago. The team did everything they could to put themselves in winning positions, but Drew Brees’s arm was clearly expired, and he wasn’t able to get anything going at all in the entire first half. Don’t let the somewhat respectable final stat line fool you- the legendary signal caller was depressingly bad on the big stage. It’s not hard to imagine that Chicago’s formidable front seven might create some similar problems, disrupting Brees to the point of rendering him useless, and stifling the Saints’ potent run game. Whether or not the Bears’ own offense will be able to take advantage of their defense’s performance and get enough points to win remains to be seen, but I believe that after a few solid weeks of offensive football, albeit against lower-caliber defenses than the one they’ll see this week, they will be able to find just enough to get the job done. 

Rams @ Seahawks

Prediction: Rams 19, Seahawks 25

This divisional rivalry has provided us with some of the best on-field drama in recent years, and this season has been no exception. They split the season series, after a pair of tense, hard-fought matchups, and now are destined for a tiebreaker. This could be the best NFC Wild Card game we get to see, as both teams have real aspirations to go deep into this postseason, and there’s no love lost between the two. The case for LA basically boils down to their defense- to put it plainly, it’s been the best in the business this year, and has a solid chance to slow down a Hawks offense that has struggled of late. Of course, that offense still features Russell Wilson, and he has a highly talented wideout duo at his disposal in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. That offensive firepower and the team’s recent defensive resurgence, combined with the veteran leadership of Super Bowl champs Wilson, Head Coach Pete Carroll, and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, is enough to lead me to believe that the Hawks will come out on top in what promises to be a very closely contested and highly entertaining matchup.

Buccaneers @ Football Team

Prediction: Bucs 27, Football Team 13

On paper, this is one of the most lopsided potential matchups of the entire postseason. Tampa has finally found its groove, as Tom Brady and his vast arsenal of weapons are finally clicking. However, the Football Team is a very talented defensive team, hosting a playoff game for the first time in years, and will be itching to play their best for a coach and quarterback who have gone through more challenges, both on and off the field, than any such duo in recent memory. We all know that the way to take down Brady is to hit him early and often, as evidenced by both Giants Super Bowl upsets of the Patriots as well as the 2015 Broncos’ masterclass in punishing the GOAT, and Washington is a football team primed to do just that. Still, it’s more likely than not that the talent gap is simply too large, and although they might have to compete a bit more than many might hope, Tampa should have no problem getting through this matchup. This is particularly the case if the two teams’ Week 17 performance was any indication- the Football Team struggled mightily in getting past an Eagles team that was very clearly trying to lose the game, and is pretty horrible in general, even when they do want to win. Meanwhile, the Bucs absolutely scraped a similarly pathetic Falcons team as the offense was roaring at full force.

Divisional Round

AFC

Browns @ Chiefs

Prediction: Browns 30, Chiefs 45

It’s been nothing short of a Cinderella story for Baker Mayfield and co. as they not only advanced to the playoffs for just the second time since the Browns were revived in the late 90s, but they went a step further and actually won a game for the first time in that span. However, the end is imminent when they face the heavily-favored chiefs in their second round. Cleveland takes advantage of KC’s bye week hangover, as well as the fact that they’ve basically been sleepwalking ever since Super Bowl 54, and takes an early lead. But as they so often do, the Chiefs storm right back, and end up smashing the Browns shoddy secondary and pulling away for a comfortable win. The Browns produce a valiant effort, but in the end, they’re just not as talented as the Chiefs, nor are they remotely as experienced in a playoff setting. There’s a bright future in Cleveland for the first time in a long time, but any championship aspirations will have to wait. For now, the Chiefs take full advantage of their first round bye and move within a win of returning to the Super Bowl.

Ravens @ Bills

Prediction: Ravens 33, Bills 35

When the Ravens are playing their best football, they can really run with anyone in the NFL. As hot as they’ve been lately, they will certainly give Buffalo a run for their money on what would hopefully be a snowy playoff game day in upstate New York, but I see them coming up just short. The Bills have been dominant all year, and have blown the doors off of even the most dominant defenses in football. The Ravens do not do well when they’re forced to play from behind, and that’s just what happens when they travel to visit a team that is nearly as talented as they are, and arguably in even better form. The Bills score first, and then second, building a first-quarter lead that the Ravens challenge, but never surpass. Their red zone efficiency proves to be the difference, as they convert all of their drives inside the 20 into 7 points. The Ravens strong finish to the season comes to a close, and the Bills earn a date with the Chiefs with the Lamar Hunt Trophy on the line.

NFC

Bears @ Packers

Prediction: Bears 22, Packers 31

The Packers have already been the perpetrators of the Bears’ two worst defensive performances this year. Here, we see some improvement from a hot and highly motivated Bears team, but not quite enough to get them into the NFC Championship Game. The end result is a scoreline that looks a lot closer than what the fans see on the football field, as Chicago is able to move the ball, and settles for far too many field goals. The Pack build a nice early lead over a seemingly flustered opponent, and by the time the Bears offense heats up, they are in a two-score hole that they never cut back down to one. The legend of Mitch Trubisky is at an end for this season, and perhaps forever in Chicago, as a very up and down 9-9 season raises questions about the offense overall, and what must be done about it. The Packers, however, are headed back to the NFC Championship Game for the second straight year, and are a win away from their first Super Bowl appearance since the third year of Aaron Rodgers’s tenure as the starter.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks

Prediction: Bucs 34, Seahawks 24

Stop me if you’ve heard this before- Brady vs. Russ in a high-powered playoff matchup. Last time was a classic, and this time, the game is no letdown either. Both teams come out on fire, lighting up the scoreboard in a two-sided air raid, but after halftime, the Tampa defense settles in, but Seattle’s does not. After a bit of back-and-forth football that features a couple of lead changes in the first half, the Bucs charge into the second half with a slim lead to protect, and they get enough stops to do just that until a late Ronald Jones touchdown gives them a 10-point lead and salts the game away. The Seahawks are left with questions and disappointment after a year that started with so much promise, as their attention now has to shift towards maximizing what may be the final few years of the Wilson/Carroll championship window. Tom Brady, on the other hand, is headed back to Championship Weekend, a very familiar feeling, although he’s experiencing it from a new angle for the first time- competing in the NFC Championship Game.

Championship Round

AFC

bills @ CHiefs

Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 38

These two teams have truly been the best in the AFC all season long and here, they get the chance to square off in one game to decide who will represent the conference in Super Bowl 55. Unfortunately, the game is not as competitive as the viewing public may have hoped, as the Bills defense is more or less rendered useless against the blistering Chiefs air attack. For once, Mahomes and friends don’t fall behind early, as they rip off a scorching start and take a lead that they never relinquish. The KC defense disrupts Josh Allen and gets just enough stops to keep the Bills at arm’s length all game long. Buffalo has had an impressive season, winning the AFC East for the first time in over two decades, and surpassing expectations as much as almost any team in recent memory. Still, it’s all over now, and they’ll have to wait until next year to try to build on this season and establish their dominance in the East. They’ve emerged as a true threat in the AFC, but they were no match for the defending conference champs, who are headed back to the Super Bowl for a second straight year.

NFC

Buccaneers @ Packers

Prediction: Bucs 35, Packers 38

Twice, we’ve been robbed of a Brady-Rodgers postseason matchup, because the Packers got knocked out of the NFC Championship Game by the Seahawks and Falcons, and arguably a third time when they capped off a 15-1 season with a loss to the Giants in the 2011 Divisional Round. Granted, all three of the resulting Super Bowls were veritable all-time classics, but it always seemed that we were waiting for a playoff matchup between the two best quarterbacks of the current era. Well, the wait is no more, as Brady broke the system by hopping over to the NFC and meeting Rodgers a game early. This game is a thriller from the start, featuring the league’s #1 and #3 scoring offenses, and every score is answered with one from the other team. With just a minute to go before the end of the game, a short-range Brady dart to Antonio Brown on fourth and goal brings the Bucs level, but it turns out that a minute is just a bit too long. Rodgers leads the Packers down the field, and after a sideline strike to a receiver we’ve not yet heard of (Malik Taylor maybe? Who knows) Mason Crosby kicks the first field goal attempt of the game through the crisp Lambeau air directly through the goalposts as time expires, sending the Packers to the Super Bowl. The first Brady-Rodgers postseason showdown gives us everything we ever could have hoped, and we’re all left hoping that the Bucs can make a run again and give us a rematch next season.

Super Bowl LV

Chiefs vs. Packers

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Packers 34

It’s rotten luck really- three years as a starter, two playoff losses, and they’re to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Or maybe it was just phenomenal luck that his path last year involved Deshaun Watson dragging a horrible Texans roster, and then Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo. Regardless, Pat Mahomes falls just short of ring #2 after a thrilling matchup against an all time great. The Chiefs are realistically the better team here, but Rodgers has been a man on a mission all season, and will not be denied his second Super Bowl ring in as many trips. The Super Bowl plays out as a game that never devolves into a blowout of any sort, as the Packers let the Chiefs stay dangerously within striking distance, keeping all of America on their toes waiting for another last-minute flurry, but they hold steady, run long drives, and control the game after taking an early lead. Most importantly, they limit their mistakes, surrendering zero turnovers compared to two from the Chiefs- a pick and a fumble from Mahomes. Rodgers takes home MVP honors after a low-volume but surgical outing, and with two rings, two Super Bowl MVP’s, three league MVP’s, and arguably the best rate-based career stats in league history, cements himself for good as a top-ten passer of all time. The Chiefs’ window is far from closed, but they’ll have to wait another year to assert themselves as a true dynasty- because as fans have been so fond of pointing out, one ring doesn’t come close to making you a dynasty.

The NFL playoffs kick off on Saturday 1/9 on CBS at 1:05 PM ET with the Colts/Bills Wild Card Matchup.

Saturday and Sunday will each feature a playoff triple header; the action wraps up with Browns @ Steelers, Sunday night at 8:15 PM on NBC