3/5/24 Kansas State at Kansas Game Preview
On Saturday, the Kansas Jayhawks suffered a second straight loss for the first time in over a year. Kansas also suffered its seventh conference loss of the season, the most they have had since the Big 12 was formed in 1996. Can the Jayhawks bounce back with a big home win on their Senior Night? Or will their troubling results lately continue against their in-state rival Kansas State?
When Kansas Has the Ball
The Jayhawks’ offense revolves around senior center Hunter Dickinson, the Michigan transfer who averaged 18.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Dickinson leads an offense that ranks 2nd in post-up efficiency and 24th in efficiency finishing at the rim according to ShotQuality’s metrics.
While the loss to Baylor was tough to swallow, the return of Kevin McCullar is massive for Kansas moving forward. McCullar looked to be in full health, scoring 20 points and picking up 2 assists and 2 steals. McCullar’s ability to operate as a secondary ball-handler takes pressure off point guard DaJuan Harris and makes the offense multi-dimensional.
Freshman wing Johnny Furphy has also continued to emerge as a difference-maker for the Jayhawks. He’s averaging 13 ppg over his last 13 games, coming after just 5.6 ppg in his first 14 games of the season. A 38% 3-point shooter in conference play, his production is crucial for a Jayhawks offense that has lacked elite shooting.
In the first matchup between these teams, Kansas shot just 3-15 (20%) from 3-point range. I’d be surprised if that shooting performance is repeated against a Kansas State defense that ranks 308th in open 3 rate per ShotQuality. Opponents have hit just 34.5% of unguarded 3-pointers against the Wildcats, which ranks 77th in the country, and regression is likely in that department here.
When Kansas State Has the Ball
Kansas State has struggled to live up to lofty expectations following a surprise run to the Elite Eight last season and its disappointing offense is the primary culprit. The Wildcats rank just 151st in adjusted efficiency, and it doesn’t help that they turn the ball over on a staggering 21.5% of possessions, which ranks 352nd in the country. Those offensive issues won’t be lessened on the road against an elite Kansas defense that ranks 11th in adjusted efficiency.
Kansas State’s turnovers will allow the Jayhawks to get out in transition, where they’ve been elite this season. Kansas scores 1.208 points per possession (PPP) in transition, tied for the 13th-most in the country per Synergy.
One bright spot for Kansas State on offense has been the production of guard Tylor Perry, a North Texas transfer playing his best ball as of late. He has scored 26+ points in each of the team’s last two games and scored 26 points against the Jayhawks earlier this season. However, Bill Self will come in with a strong defensive game plan for Perry that likely features McCullar’s stellar on-ball defense.
The verdict
The Jayhawks’ loss to Kansas State earlier this season came in a brutal situational spot as they were coming off their big home win over Houston. This is the opposite situation as they’re desperate for a win, and I believe the Jayhawks will play with a sense of urgency that will not be matched by their rival.
Laying 11.5 points in a conference rivalry game is a tough ask, but I believe Kansas outmatches its in-state counterpart in virtually every meaningful way and will have full focus on exacting revenge in this game.
Kansas is 336th in Haslametrics’ away-from-home rating, but they’ve gone 17-1 at home and Allen Fieldhouse is still one of the best home-court advantages in the country. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have gone 1-7 on the road in conference play, including double-digit losses to the class of the conference in Houston and Iowa State.
I’m betting on the Jayhawks crushing the Wildcats in this rematch as they bounce back at home.
Best Bet: Kansas -11.5 (play to -12.5)
