MLB 2020 Preview: part 3

Playoff Predictions

By: schwartz

Final regular season standings- playoff teams in bold

ALE: Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles

ALC: Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Tigers

ALW: A’s, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Mariners

NLE: Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Marlins

NLC: Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Reds, Pirates'

NLW: Dodgers, D-Backs, Padres, Giants, Rockies

I got into the playoff prospects for most of these teams in my power ranks, so I won’t go too deep into this portion. But it’s awesome how much talent there is spread through the league this year. Outside of the NL West, there are really no division locks. The World Champs are no sort of guarantee to win their division, or even get to October, and even the juggernaut Bronx Bombers are going to be pushed all season long by an extremely strong Tampa team. The playoff picture is wide open, and it’s going to be incredibly fun to see how it plays out. However, the center of the baseball world lies on the East Coast once again, as I see half of the 10-team playoff field coming from the two east divisions/one east SUPERDIVISION. Classic powers like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, and A’s are primed to rule, with a healthy dose of upstarts and small market teams to join the party. Don’t - and I really mean do not - count out a Subway World Series. Anything can happen in the 2020 MLB, except April, or May, or June baseball, apparently. 

As it turns out, the 2020 playoff format is going to be the same as the usual, but of course seeding could be impacted by the caveat of regular season geographic alignment - for example, AL East teams will play games only against their own division foes and their NL East counterparts. This wrinkle initially gave me concerns about my choice to pick 5 East teams to go to the playoffs, since a lot of the best teams might cannibalize one another, but the strength of schedule for these teams (as calculated using 2019 win totals) is actually not that high; it’s actually lower than average, as there are some serious bottom-feeders across the two divisions. So, I feel alright leaving my predictions as they were back in March.

Before we get into the matchups, here is the seeding for both leagues

AL: 1) Yankees 2) Twins 3) A’s 4) Rays 5) Astros

NL: 1) Dodgers 2) Cardinals 3) Braves 4) Nationals 5) Mets

Wild card round

(winners in bold)

AL: 5 HOU (1)  @ 4 TB (0)

NL: 5 NYM (0) @ 4 WAS (1)

The postseason gets off to a fast start, with two wild-card games thrown by four unbelievable pitchers. If health and rotations line up properly, we would be looking at Justin Verlander vs. Blake Snell - the last two Cy Young winners in the AL - and Jacob DeGrom vs Max Scherzer - the Cy Young winners for the past FOUR years in the NL. There may be less than 10, or even 8 total runs scored between the two games. It’s extremely hard to pick between such masters on all fronts, but in this instance, I see experience winning out on both sides. 

Both Scherzer and Verlander, the former Tigers teammates, are World Champions, and both have thrown in must-win battles of aces more times than I can count. Furthermore, while the Mets and the Rays have both put together a lot of great talent, I think the bats behind JV and Mad Max are simply better, and better versed in October nights. Last year’s World Series teams both survive for now. Nats and Astros win the Wild Card Round

Division Series

(winners in bold)

5 HOU (1) @ 1 NYY (3)

3 OAK (3) @ 2 MIN (1)

4 WAS (2)  @ 1 LAD (3)

3 ATL (3) @ 2 STL (2)

Both leagues get one or more 2019 playoff rematches this round, and all are full of drama. The Yankees will be out for blood after the Astros and their rampant cheating cost them two trips to the Fall Classic, and the ‘Stros will be salivating at the chance to hit against their former teammate who could not have been more clear that the last out of the 2019 World Series was his last moment as an Astro. This time, without AJ Hinch, Dave the Camera Guy, and of course, Cole himself on Houston’s side, the Yankees finally win the battle of the two AL superteams and get the better of their rivals for the first time in four recent postseason matchups. 

In the NL rematch, we have a reversal of results as well. Whether they want to admit it or not, the Dodgers’ failure against the Nationals was the driving force behind the aggressive offseason they’ve had, and they’ll be fired up for this series. Last year, the Nationals’ depth was a real boost for the team, but with the loss of Rendon to free agency, and a handful of players such as Ryan Zimmerman to simply opt out of playing, I don’t see the same advantage for them this year. The Dodgers’ sheer talent level will be too much for them to overcome a second year in a row.The good news for LA is that the big moves pay off - they return the favor and once again, get back to their former tradition of sending the Nats home in yet another truly thrilling 5-game NLDS. 

The other NL series is also a 2019 rematch, but this time, with another year of experience behind them, the Braves’ extremely talented group of youngsters pull out the decisive game 5 win this time, and move onto the NLCS. The Cardinals have always had a knack for figuring it out in October against more talented teams, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to do it to the same team two years in a row, especially against a squad that is only trending upwards.

Back in the AL, the A’s take full advantage of winning their first division title in quite some time, and earn a trip straight to the ALDS without playing an AL East juggernaut in a Wild Card game for once. They knock off the higher-seeded Twins, with their balanced lineup jumping on opportunities to bury Minnesota’s still-lacking pitching staff whenever they can, particularly in the late innings. Yankees, A’s, Dodgers, and Braves all win the Division Series. 

championship series

(winners in bold)

3 OAK (1) @ 1 NYY (4)

3 ATL (1) @ 1 LAD (4)

After a thrilling opening couple of rounds of baseball, the bracket begins to become a bit chalky here. As is too often the case, a wild card team with solid momentum is the best challenge that either top seed will face, and the lower-seeded division winners that the Yanks and Dodgers run into in their respective Championship Series are simply not up to the task. The Braves’ youth shows, and their uneven pitching staff proves too weak to hold down the Dodgers’ bats. A great season for Atlanta comes to an end at their own ballpark, as the Dodgers close things out in 5. Their new World Champion, Mookie Betts, is an absolute terror at the top of the lineup, starting off too many big innings for the Braves to handle, and is named NLCS MVP. 

Similarly, the A’s talent once again comes up short against the evil empire. The Oakland bullpen remains strong, but pitching can’t really lead comebacks, and the Yankees offense does more damage against the Oakland starters than the A’s can come back from. The Yanks close out the ALCS at the Oakland Coliseum, and hopefully don’t come back until the new stadium is built, because that place is gross. Gleyber Torres’s timely hitting with runners on base proves fatal for the A’s relievers when backed into tough situations, and the young shortstop brings home the ALCS MVP. Yankees and Dodgers win the Championship Series. 

World series

(winners in bold)

NYY (4) LAD (3)

We finally get the series that it feels like we’ve been just a step or two away from for a couple of years, and it really, really delivers. The history of this former crosstown NYC rivalry comes to the forefront, and everyone on both sides can feel it. But this time, the series is played out on two coasts and the whole nation gets to enjoy the show. By then, there might actually be fans in seats for the first time in nearly a year, adding a unique energy to this year’s Fall Classic. This is a truly star-studded matchup - the amount of talent on the two sides is simply absurd. You could say the teams each have the best pitcher in their league, and it would be hard to say you’re wrong. You could say the teams each have the best hitter in their league, and it would once again be hard to say you’re wrong. With little separating the two rosters, the two teams battle it out 7 games, including two matchups between the eventual Cy Young winners, with both aces living up to the hype in pitching battles for the ages, each winning the game played at their home ballpark. 

The main difference-makers in this series, which will be rightfully billed as one between two elite front-end rotations and punishing offenses, are the bullpens, as well as the third and fourth starting pitchers. Dustin May is a strong up and comer, but he doesn’t stack up well with Masahiro Tanaka, who has been historically great in October. The Dodgers will seriously miss World Champion David Price in this respect, even though he was a question mark himself after a number of postseason letdowns. Similarly, LA has talent in their pen, but the depth doesn’t compare to what the Yankees have. Realistically, the hyper-talented Adam Ottavino is around the fourth best reliever they have behind the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Tommy Kahnle, and Zack Britton (also hard-throwing long reliever Chad Green, at times). More importantly, the Dodgers relief staff doesn’t stand up to the Yankees offense, as the Bronx Bombers take three of their four wins in the late stages of the games, of course including a thrilling game 7 instant-classic after an even 6 games between historic rivals. 

The game starts as an evenly-fought duel between fan-favorite Tanaka and the Dodgers’ youngster May, punctuated by another failed Kershaw playoff relief performance, before the Cuban Missile, Aroldis Chapman slams the door in the top of the ninth, sealing a 28th championship in the Bronx. CC Sabathia smiles, Alex Bregman cries. The Series MVP goes to LeMahieu after he seals one game in each city with a late homer, and this time, there is no answer from the opponent to ruin it. The Yankees are World Champions again, and another season of MLB baseball gets yet another thrilling finish. Yankees win the World Series

That’s it guys, I really hope you all enjoyed it. I’m sure some stuff in there is going to look like prophecy a couple of months from now, and some is going to look downright stupid. But either way, I’m sure we’re in for a crazy, amazing, thrilling, and most of all, unique season of Major League Baseball. We waited way, way, way, WAY too long for it, and it’s time to start. Play Ball!

The MLB season kicks off tonight with Yankees vs. Nationals at 7:08 ET, and Giants vs. Dodgers at 10:08 ET, both on ESPN